The Bitcoin rally may end as early as this fall. FTX may refuse to pay compensation to Ukrainians. The NBU explained the reasons for the rise of the euro. The US will hold a "crypto law week."

Analyst predicts Bitcoin's growth could end as early as this fall 

 

The price of Bitcoin could peak in October 2025, approximately 550 days after the last halving. This forecast was made by a Rekt Capital analyst, who compared the current growth with the previous cycle in 2020. According to him, Bitcoin has two to three months left for active upward movement.  

 

He noted that many investors are ignoring history and hoping for the rally to continue until 2026, which could lead to mistakes and ill-considered decisions. 

  


However, Standard Chartered experts believe that the old halving cycle model is no longer relevant. According to their forecast, Bitcoin could rise to $135,000 in the third quarter of this year and approach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Analysts cite high interest from institutional investors and the popularity of ETFs (financial instruments that allow you to buy a "share" in a fund that invests in Bitcoin) as the main reasons for the growth.  

 

 

However, the bank warned of possible volatility in the fall, as some investors are still waiting for a correction according to old scenarios.

Ukrainians may be left without payments from the bankrupt FTX exchange 

 

Residents of 49 countries, including Ukraine, will not be able to receive compensation from the bankrupt FTX exchange. The reason is a ban on cryptocurrency transactions in these countries.   

 

 

The relevant document was sent by FTX Recovery Trust to the Delaware State Court. In total, these 49 jurisdictions account for about 5% of all confirmed claims against FTX. Most of the disputes are related to China — about 82%. In addition to Ukraine, the list also includes Pakistan, Moldova, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 

 

  

 

All creditors from these countries will receive notifications with the reasons for the rejection of their claims. Each will have at least 45 days to file objections. Payments will be frozen until final decisions are made, but if no agreement is reached, the withheld amounts will be returned to the general fund.  

 

  

 

After the publication, many former exchange customers turned to lawyers. Some accused FTX's management of trying to embezzle other people's money. 

The NBU explained why the euro rose 

 

  

The euro exchange rate in Ukraine rose above 49 UAH for the first time on July 2, 2025. The National Bank emphasized that this is not a sign of a crisis of the hryvnia but a consequence of global economic changes.  

 

The main reason for the rise in the price of the euro is the weakening of the dollar against the European currency on international markets. This was caused by changes in the US economic policy and general instability in the world. 
  

According to the regulator's estimates, the hryvnia has not depreciated directly against the euro. In Ukraine, the dollar remains the key benchmark for the currency market. The hryvnia's exchange rate against the euro is determined by its ratio to the US dollar. Therefore, the rise of the euro against the dollar makes it more expensive for Ukrainians, even if the national currency remains stable against the dollar. 

  

Internal factors also have an impact, including the balance of payments, demand for currency, and military regulatory restrictions. Nevertheless, as noted by the NBU, global processes remain the main factor at present. Decisions made in the US and Europe directly affect the wallets of Ukrainian citizens.

"Crypto Week" in the US: Congressmen to decide the fate of stablecoins, crypto exchanges, and the digital dollar 

 

 

From July 14 to 18, 2025, the US will host "Crypto Week." During this time, lawmakers plan to discuss and vote on three important bills:  

 

  1. On the regulation of stablecoins.
  2. On the structure of the crypto market. 
  3. On banning the digital dollar for citizens.  

 

The first initiative concerns stablecoins. The House is leaning towards the GENIUS Act, which allows states to independently control companies that issue stablecoins. 

 

The second initiative, the CLARITY Act, distributes the powers to regulate the crypto market between two bodies: 

 

  1. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission).
  2. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission).  

 

The document will require crypto exchanges to register with the CFTC, comply with rules on the storage of funds, disclose reports, and separate client and corporate finances.

 

The third bill is directed against the idea of a digital currency from the US central bank (CBDC). It prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar for ordinary citizens. It is assumed that this will preserve their right to privacy and freedom to dispose of their money without total state control. 

  

 

The bills are supported by Republicans and Donald Trump supporters. They believe that America should become a leader in the field of cryptocurrencies. However, Democrats criticize "crypto week," saying that the president's family is actively profiting from digital assets. According to Bloomberg, profits could reach $620 million, partly thanks to memecoin TRUMP and MELANIA.

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